StockTiger Stalking Stocks for January 22, 2013 The leading stock market newsletter.
Stock Tiger Stalking Stocks
For Tuesday January 22, 2013
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Dow +53.68 at 13649.70, Nasdaq -1.29 at 3134.71, S&P +5.04 at 1485.98
Inauguration. is a formal beginning or introduction or formal induction into office
and for 2nd term presidents it seems a strange
practice as they already are the president and
vice president. Today
however the president and vice president
officially were sworn in and begin a second
term. The event continues on Monday as a party
for Washington DC. Again it was a very
good week for the market as the rally continued.
We had 18 more watch list stock hit their buy points this week after 20 the week before and 39 the week before that. Pretty great way to start off the new year.
The volume this week was not great but it did
increase and especially on Thursday and Friday. The number of new highs also increased and
the mid and small caps continue to lead and that too, is bullish.
This week the corporate earnings continue and
watched on the tech side will be AAPL, GOOG, IBM
and NFLX. Airlines include LUV and DAL while some
household names like PG JNJ, SBUX and MCD will report.
At the movie theaters now are two films
concerning slavery. Django Unchained by Quentin Tarantino depicts the brutal
treatment of slaves in the period 2 years before the US
civil war and Lincoln from director Steven Spielberg
tells the story of President Lincoln and his successful fight to get a yes vote for the
thirteenth amendment to emancipate the slaves. The Thirteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution outlaws slavery and involuntary servitude, except as punishment for a crime. It was passed by the Senate on April 8, 1864, by the House on January 31, 1865, and adopted on December 6, 1865.
Last year on this day we featured a video that presented
Martin Luther King's
I have a Dream speech in a unique way that appealed
to many around the world who had not known the
speech. We noticed this
very contemporary dance mix tribute done last year Chris Dave - I Have A Dream (Radio edit).
The speech was given 50 years ago and was
so meaningful that its words today even fill clubs and
concerts The original speech
from August 23, 1963 is
Vitaliy Vladasovich Grachyov
better knows as Vitas is a
Russian decent but was born in Latvia. He is very well known
especially for his 5-octive range and incredible
falsetto voice. This song is Opera No. 2 and was
released as a single in 2001 and much of his
rise in worldwide recognition is because of the
sharing of his work on the Internet. A
is here Last May we featured Jessica Sanchez and Joshua Ledet from American Idol as they really blew everyone away with
their performances. The judges were saying that
they had never seen any singers on any stage better. Can you image if Vitas had
performed this on the show as an unknown - he would have
brought the house down.
First-time claims for U.S.
unemployment benefits fell by much
more than anticipated in the week
ended January 12th, according to a
report released by the Labor
Department. The report showed that
initial jobless claims fell to
335,000, a decrease of 37,000 from
the previous week's revised figure
New residential construction in the
U.S. increased by far more than
expected in the month of December,
the Commerce Department revealed in
a report. The Commerce Department
said housing starts jumped 12.1
percent to a seasonally adjusted
annual rate of 954,000 in December
from the revised November estimate
The homebuilder sentiment index rose
to 47 in December from a downwardly
revised reading of 46 for November.
The index is now at the highest
level since April 2006 and inching
closer to the ‘50’ level separating
expanding and contracting activity.
The present sales conditions index
and the future sales expectations
index rose to 51 each, while the
index measuring prospective buyer
traffic edged up 1 point to 36.
Consumer prices in the U.S. came in
unchanged in the month of December,
according to a report released by
the Labor Department. The Labor
Department said its consumer price
index was unchanged in December
after falling by 0.3 percent in
November. The latest figures matched
economist estimates. Excluding food
and energy prices, the core consumer
price index edged up by 0.1 percent
for the second straight month. The
modest increase in core prices also
came in line with estimates.
Industrial production increased 0.3
percent in December after having
risen 1.0 percent in November when
production rebounded in the
industries that had been negatively
affected by Hurricane Sandy in late
October. For the fourth quarter as a
whole, total industrial production
moved up at an annual rate of 1.0
percent. Manufacturing output
advanced 0.8 percent in December
following a gain of 1.3 percent in
November; production edged up at an
annual rate of 0.2 percent in the
For some further perspective on the current state of the stock market, today's chart presents the long-term trend of the S&P 400 (mid-cap stocks). As the chart illustrates, the S&P 400 rallied from late 2002 into the mid-2007 and then gave most of that back during the financial crisis. However, the S&P 400 rebounded well by recouping all losses incurred during the financial crisis and making new record highs in a mere two years. Since mid-2011, the S&P 400 has traded in a rather choppy fashion which has helped define its current wedge-shaped trading range (see the red and green trendlines). More recently, the S&P 400 has embarked on a sharp rally which has allowed it to break above resistance (see red line) and make new all-time record highs.
This past week's sectors.
This past week's indices -
Sydney Australia DJ team Flight Facilities twitter
featuring Giselle - They now have a
new single - Clair De Lune
feat. Christine Hoberg. I really appreciate songs that are repetitive and build
over the length of the song.
The Dow, S&P 500, Russell 2000 and crude oil all closed
at the high for the month with the NASDAQ not far from it. The Russell is
at new all-time highs and while the S&P 400
midcaps led this week, the Russell was the second largest gaining index. Gold gained over 1% this week but is still down for the month.
On the 60 min. major index charts we see how
tight the Bollinger bands had become midweek and
that is why we expected the expansion at the end
of the week. Technically in this position they still have some upside potential on Monday before some needed consolidation a bit later on.
On the Dow weekly chart we see the high on Friday was within 12 points of the 2012 high and the volume was better than it has been in a month.
The volume expansion is quite noticeable on the daily chart as it increased on Thursday and Friday as it pushed very close to the horizontal resistance. The RSI
has not yet gone over 70 so we have room to run in that regard.
2-day-per-bar chart we see that if it can close above the 2012 high
it will have a very good chance of reaching the 127.2% Fibonacci projection above 14,000. This also would take the index up to the top line of this parallel channel.
On the Dow futures from the low near January 8 you see the several times
it created a bullish flag or top trendline that gave an opportunity to buy on that break. On Friday
we posted this chart showing the setup of the bull flag shown in the top and the potential that it would breakout before the close, which turned out to be the case.
The utility average, which had dropped after testing and slightly breaking over the 200 day EMA, bounced back up on Friday from the other moving averages to close right at resistance on a bit higher volume.
A breakout here and above 465 could start a longer move back up to the top trendline.
The transportation average had another very nice week after hinting of a breakout the previous week.
It gained over 2% this week closing at the highs.
The NASDAQ summation continues on the buy side for the NASDAQ and note that it's levels are where we had a negative crossover late last September.
The moving average of the number of new highs on the NASDAQ shows a significant advance which is bullish but the levels they have reached are also levels where we have, twice in 2012, seen pullbacks.
There is now a larger distance between the moving average of new 52-week highs on the NASDAQ above the NASDAQ 100 price than we have seen on this chart
The NASDAQ remains slightly above this blue trendline but we have not seen a big the expansion above it.
The NASDAQ has not performed as well as the other induces.
The NASDAQ is still within this up trending parallel channel on the 60 min. chart where the top line will coincide with horizontal resistance at 3196.
That level mentioned above is the highest from 2012 and slightly over that is the 161.8% Fibonacci projection based on the shorter-term first wave move.
The NASDAQ 100 mechanical chart which had shifted back to a buy at the beginning of the year,
The NASDAQ 100 futures sits below the 127.2% projection which is resistance and a close over could take it to the 161.8% with some resistance at about 2775.
The volatility index remains calm as it closed under 13.
The semiconductor index has remained bullish since its initial close over the 50 week EMA and then its breakout above the green trendline
three weeks ago and it now is approaching the upper trendline near 420.
The NYSE new highs minus new lows remains elevated which is bullish and it is has backed off from its extreme highs which is
also a good thing.
Over 88% of stocks on the NYSE are now trading over their 50 day moving average, which shows good strength in the market but also brings caution as from these elevated levels,
we do in time get declines.
The S&P 500 bullish percent indicator as been on a buy
since the third week of November gaining about 100 points.
The lazy trading S&P 500 had a whipsaw in December but still
has gained over 50 points from the last buy point.
In the previous week we had a very slight break above resistance for the S&P 500 and this week's chart shows the 1% gain moving above this resistance on a bit higher volume.
On the daily chart. The first days of the week were only sideways maintaining support at the dotted line before the break above on Thursday.
On the 60 min. chart we see a parallel channel about 20 points in
width it has maintained since breaking back inside at the start of the year.
On this 15 min. chart view we see a trendline top not far above and this channel
which is slightly converging.
2-day-per-bar chart note that the S&P 500 has closed over this breakout line so we now has
at least a 60% chance of running up to the 127.2% at 1511. If it continues from there,
at the moment the 161.8% is at the top parallel channel trendline.
On the mechanical 15 min. chart as the S&P 500 was in a very tight range at this first part of the week we had many little whipsaws leading to a nice expansion long on Thursday and then again on Friday after a morning dip.
This 5 min. chart shows the low was reached about noon on Friday and from there
about a 10 point move into the close
The S&P 500 had its own parallel channel closing right at the top line on Friday.
On Thursday morning we showed this parallel channel of the SPY and how the 161.8% intersected the top channel trendline. It turns out that on Thursday
it made that target exactly, pulled back on Friday, then moved back up to it by the close.
is this live 15 min. chart showing the crossover buy of the Russell at the beginning of the year capturing some very significant gains.
The 3-X ETF for the Russell 2000 broke above this parallel channel running up to and slightly over this very short term Fibonacci projection level.
The value line
arithmetic index which has been at all-time highs went even higher
The 30 year treasury bond prices ran back up close to the 20 day moving average but may be forming a third bear flag at the moment.
The a longer-term view of the bank index as it is moving up towards horizontal resistance from the high of 2011 and then the 161.8% Fibonacci projection level.
The banking index
has been consolidating right under this horizontal potential breakout point.
The retail sector
has been very strong since late summer and even with its pullback,
starting in October, it never even dropped as far as its breakout point. This week it made new levels above resistance, gaining 2.24%.
The emerging markets ETF has been consolidating the last couple of weeks after
its breakout above the $44 resistance.
The Dow Jones world index moved up
.5% and is clearly above resistance heading towards the highs of 2011.
The London FTSE also broke out above 2011 highs
adding over .5% this week.
The Shanghai index in the previous week
had pulled back after it's five week run and this week bounced from the 50 week EMA to run up over 3%.
Our commodity tracking ETF gained 1.7%
and closed just at short term resistance shown in green.
The longer-term view of crude oil as it nears the top trendline with increasing
volume, though not spectacular.
On the weekly chart
it clearly has moved over this shorter-term trendline with the top Bollinger band now at $98.
The natural gas ETF
had successfully tested its August lows just over $17 and
has now moved up over the 50 day EMA with 200 day at $21. The RSI and Williams indicator pretty much marked the lows.
UNG RSI buy signal came first before the final low was reached and then again at that low and it has been a very nice move from there and closed above the horizontal dotted line resistance on Friday.
The 3-X ETF for natural gas at the same time had bounced at its trendline where we had buys in April and in June and
has moved up over 20% from there. If it continues and does as well
as the last three moves it could run up above $36.
Gold advanced this week and on Thursday
and moved over the 50 day EMA but closed back under it on Friday.
The GLD weekly chart gaining over 1%
may have moved enough to rule out the bear flag that looked like it may be forming. To confirm that you would like to see a move
over the Ctr. Bollinger band now at 166.
The gold miners ETF was down
.5% this week on lower volume.
The mechanical GDX remained on a sell unchanged from last week.
Silver gained 4.5% this week closing back over the 50 week EMA.
On the shorter timeframe chart we see the move took it right into a possible resistance area at this 38.2% Fibonacci level.
The S LV mechanical chart
is back on a buy after being on a sell since
Copper was unchanged this week.
has been very strong since the end of October
and volume picked up this week as it broke out into new levels gaining over 3%.
The euro was almost unchanged this week closing just pennies below its 200 week EMA
The close on the euro futures still keeps it over the trendline it broke above recently.
The US dollar is also been a rather uninteresting lately hanging around its 50 week and 200 week EMAs.
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